premier league trophy
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At the start of this season there was some heavy betting action on Chelsea and Manchester City in particular. When the Pogba deal was a wrap the amount of bets on Manchester United as champions also increased significantly. Now we are about one quarter into the season and the betting action has certainly changed.

The odds

Bet 365 is one of the biggest betting companies in the world and offers the following odds on Premier League winner 2016/17:

Manchester City 5/4
Liverpool 10/3
Chelsea 11/2
Arsenal 11/2
Tottenham 16/1
Manchester United 25/1
Everton 125/1
Leicester 250/1

The table

Ten rounds have been played so far and the standings (top eight) right now are as follows:

# Team Played W D L Points
1 Man City 10 7 2 1 23
2 Arsenal 10 7 2 1 23
3 Liverpool 10 7 2 1 23
4 Chelsea 10 7 1 2 22
5 Tottenham 10 5 5 0 20
6 Everton 10 5 3 2 18
7 Watford 10 4 3 3 15
8 Man Utd 10 4 3 3 15

The betting distribution

All the bets at the start of the season are of course still live and the betting distribution clearly doesn’t reflect the beliefs of today. The amount of bets on Liverpool has increased while the amount of bets on Manchester United has decreased since the start of the season.

In a shorter perspective you’ll find that people tend to bet more on Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea. The changes in betting activity on Premier League winner last week compared to this week according to Tippat

betting trends

The odds on Manchester City to win the Premier League have decreased and that’s probably the reason why the amount of bets on City also decreased compared to last week. We find the most dramatic change in the amount of bets on Manchester United to lift the trophy. Last week close to 19 % of total bets on the eventual Premier League winner was placed on Manchester United. But after a weak draw at home against Burnley less than 12 % believes in United.

Chelsea should be a good bet

Judging from the betting activity on Chelsea there’s still some doubt among sports bettors. The amount of bets on Chelsea to win the Premier League is surprisingly low considering you’re offered 11/2 for them to do so. It might have something to do with the fact that Antonio Conte is such a new manager at Chelsea.

As a new manager you’ll always have a tough time to get the team to play the way you want them to play. It doesn’t matter if you’re Fabio Capello, José Mouriho, Pep Guardiola or Vicente del Bosque. It will take time. Liverpool’s Jürgen Klopp has done remarkable well at his new club and found his rhythm very fast over at Anfield. That might be one of the reasons why sports bettors seem to have such confidence in Liverpool at the moment. But Klopp has been the Liverpool manager since October last year while Conte took charge of Chelsea this summer. That’s a big difference and it would be unreasonable to expect the Italian to implement his playing philosophy in just a few months. But looking on the last couple of games certainly makes you hopeful that Conte’s men trust his methods and that the team has the ability to adapt quickly.

If you also have trust in Conte, now should be a good time to place a bet on Chelsea. The Chelsea players will get an even better grasp of Conte’s way of playing in the coming months and I expect the team to become a well-oiled machine before the start of next year. Hopefully Chelsea can get a good shot at the title. I’d definitely bet on Chelsea at 11/2 now rather than wait until January because I expect the odds to be significantly lower by then.

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