Chelsea have made a blistering start to life under Xabi Alonso. The 2024/25 season was an absolute disaster, firstly under Club World Cup-winning manager Enzo Maresca before then getting even worse under Liam Rosenior. However, since the former Real Madrid boss has taken over at the Bridge, the mood has immediately lifted.
Impressive Start to Life Under Alonso
With the newly formed strike force of Joao Pedro, a back-to-his-best Cole Palmer, and megamoney signing Morgan Rogers firing on all cylinders, the Blues stormed to a 3-2 win at local rivals Fulham on the opening day of the season. Chelsea then knocked off Brighton in a 4-3 thriller at Stamford Bridge, with a 2-0 League Cup win against Jack Wilshere’s Luton Town sandwiched in between. That impressive start has caught the eye of online bookmakers, who have slashed odds on Alonso’s men winning the title this season.
The latest soccer odds make the Blues an 11/2 shot to win the Premier League this season, still some way behind odds-on 5/6 favourites Arsenal, but still well down on the 12/1 odds one could have gotten in preseason. But while there have certainly been encouraging signs to the start of life under Alonso, there are also causes for concern. The main one, without question, is the regularity with which Chelsea concede goals.
Leaky Defence
Chelsea have already conceded five goals at an average of 2.5 goals per game so far this season. To put that number into perspective, only 18th-placed Crystal Palace and newly promoted Ipswich Town have conceded more. In fact, two of the four teams currently sitting alongside the Blues in the top four, namely defending champions Arsenal and high-flying Hull City, are still yet to concede so far this term.
Alonso has moved to address the concerns, somewhat at least. 2022 World Cup-winning goalkeeper Emi Martinez has arrived after an impressive six-year stint with Aston Villa in which the West Midlands club rose from relegation candidates to Champions League regulars. And, to make things even better, the Argentine arrived at a cut price of just £7.5m days after a rumoured £20m move to Juventus collapsed.
But are there bigger problems to address? Last season, Chelsea conceded 54 goals, the fifth highest of anybody not including the three relegated teams. Since then, only Maxence Lacroix from Crystal Palace has arrived to strengthen that defence. The injury-prone duo of Levi Colwill and Wesley Fofana, two men who made just 22 Premier League starts between them last season, are expected to pick up much of the slack, with youngster Josh Acheampong the reserve option.
What the History Books Tell Us
Chelsea will not win the Premier League conceding at a rate of 2.5 goals per game; that much is certain. However, with just two games played, that number will almost certainly come down in the coming weeks and months. Still, the history books aren’t kind to leaky defences.
Only five of the Premier League’s 23 champions since 1992/93 have managed to claim the title conceding goals at a rate of more than one per game. Manchester United managed that feat no fewer than three times under Sir Alex Ferguson, while Blackburn Rovers’ shock success in 1995 and Liverpool’s recent triumph under Arne Slot two seasons ago also came with a not-so-watertight defence. But those outfits are very much in the minority.
Defence wins championships. That’s how the old saying goes, and it rings true not just in football, but across pretty much every sport on the planet. In five of the last seven seasons, the team that conceded the fewest goals ended the campaign with the title, with Arsenal’s success last season continuing that trend as the Gunners allowed just 27 goals all season. Chelsea are already 18.5% of the way towards that total with just 5% of the season completed.
Indeed, Chelsea’s own recent Premier League triumphs prove just how important a staunch backline truly is. Their total of just 15 goals conceded throughout the 2004/05 success under Jose Mourinho remains a record that will likely never be broken. The following season, the Special One led the Blues to the title having conceded just 22 goals, and his side conceded 32 goals as they won the title nine years later. All of those totals were the lowest in the division.
But that same trend doesn’t follow Chelsea’s success under Carlo Ancelotti in 2010 or Antonio Conte in 2017. The runners-up to the Blues in both of those seasons, namely Manchester United in the former and Tottenham Hotspur in the latter, both conceded fewer goals than the eventual champions but still missed out on the title.
So, Will Things Improve?
Well, truth be told, it can’t get much worse. Chelsea haven’t finished a campaign averaging more than two goals conceded per game in 47 years, and they will be in deep trouble should they repeat that unwanted effort in 2026/27.
Alonso’s reign is still in its infancy, and the current squad is still trying to adapt fully to how the Spaniard wants to play, especially in defence. His invincible Bayer Leverkusen team of 2024 conceded just 24 goals in the Bundesliga as they claimed the Meisterschale for the first time in history. That figure was a full 19 goals fewer than the amount conceded by resident heavyweights Bayern Munich and a key reason why the title headed to the BayArena.
It took the Spaniard around a year to turn that Werkself defence into the monster it became. If he is afforded a similar amount of time at the Bridge, then improvements will surely come… And with them, perhaps a title challenge.
